The sigh of relief that registered in the hours following a Thanksgiving feast in locales such as Tempe, Ames, Provo, the Little Apple and Boulder was the result of double-digit underdog Memphis recording a double-digit win (34-24) at Tulane on Thursday evening.
With the Green Wave having squandered its chance of making the playoff, what happens next week at home or at West Point against Army in the American Conference championship game – the Black Knights will host if they get past visiting UTSA on Saturday – is likely to have no impact on the CFP. At No. 17, Tulane ranked ahead of Iowa State, BYU, Kansas State and Colorado. Only No. 16 Arizona State was ahead of Jon Sumrall’s team. Obviously, that will change come Tuesday evening’s penultimate playoff ranking.
Now, the Big 12 may not have a team in the top 12 of the ranking when all is said and done following next week’s championship games. That will not matter as the conference champ would be slotted in at No. 12 with Tulane out of the picture.
With the chances of the Green Wave joining No. 11 Boise State in having two Group of Five conference champs making the playoff scorched like an overcooked turkey, the Big 12 slept restfully Thursday night knowing it has a clear path to the playoff instead of being left out. (Remember, it is the five highest-ranked conference champs making the field. Not the highest-ranked Power Four conference champs plus one from the Group of Five.)
Nine teams still have a shot at winning the Big 12. Here is a look at the five that entered the holiday weekend ranked in the CFP top 25.
No. 16 Arizona State (9-2/6-2 Big 12) | at Arizona (4-7/2-6 Big 12) | Saturday 3:30 ET | FOX
The Sun Devils are in the driver’s seat. Defeat Arizona in the battle for the Territorial Cup on Saturday and they head to Arlington for the Big 12 championship. Lose and they could still make it to the conference title game, but would need help that would come from the numerous tiebreaker scenarios. Kenny Dillingham’s team shot up five spots after holding on against BYU last week.
No. 18 Iowa State (9-2/6-2 Big 12) | vs. No. 24 Kansas State (8-3/5-3 Big 12) | Saturday 7:30 ET | FOX
The Cyclones are in a similar position as Arizona State in that a win over No. 24 Kansas State in “Farmageddon” means a reservation in Arlington. Lose and there is still a chance at playing for the conference title given the many scenarios noted above with the Sun Devils. Iowa State was unranked following consecutive losses to Texas Tech and at Kansas. They have rebounded with wins versus Cincinnati and at Utah.
No. 19 BYU (9-2/6-2 Big 12) vs. Houston (4-7/3-5 Big 12) | Saturday 10:15 ET | ESPN
The Cougars were 9-0 and No. 6 in the CFP before plummeting 13 spots after losing at home to Kansas and at Arizona State. BYU needs to defeat visiting Houston on Saturday and otherwise hope for fortunate developments elsewhere. In particular, losses by the teams ahead of them, Arizona State and Iowa State.
No. 24 Kansas State (8-3/5-3 Big 12) at No. 18 Iowa State (9-2/6-2 Big 12) | Saturday 7:30 ET | FOX
The Wildcats kept their championship game hopes alive by defeating Cincinnati last week. The win followed consecutive losses at Houston and against visiting Arizona State. At least Kansas State is playing a ranked team Saturday. That could help as a win over the Cyclones and losses by three of the four two-loss teams in the conference could pave the way.
No. 25 Colorado (8-3/6-2 Big 12) vs. Oklahoma State (3-8/0-8 Big 12) | Friday Noon ET | ABC
The Buffaloes overcame a mid-season loss to Kansas State by rattling off four straight wins to ascend to No. 16 and firmly among the playoff bubble teams. A loss last week at Kansas just about burst that bubble. Still, they have a shot at going to Arlington if they take care of business at home against an Oklahoma State team that is winless in conference play and receive help in the form of two losses among Arizona State, Iowa State and BYU.
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