The UFC lost the original co-main event of the UFC 313 fight card in late February when a hand injury forced Dan Hooker to withdraw from the Saturday, March 8 pay-per-view event. The UFC had booked Hooker to face former UFC BMF champion Justin Gaethje in a highly anticipated matchup between the all-action competitors. When news broke that Hooker was out, several potential opponents quickly raised their hands to step in on short notice to face Gaethje. Ultimately, the UFC picked a man who Gaethje defeated by majority decision in 2023, Rafael Fiziev. We look at the picks, predictions and betting odds for the UFC 313 co-main event rematch between Gaethje and Fiziev.
UFC 313, which takes place on Saturday, March 8, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada features a main event between UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira and No. 1 ranked 205-pound contender Magomed Ankalaev.
UFC 313 Fight Card Preview: Gaethje Vs. Fiziev 2
When Justin Gaethje (25-5) joined the UFC in 2017 he had a perfect record of 17-0. Leading up to that signing, Gaethje had won the World Series of Fighting lightweight title and then defended the belt five times. All six of his title fights under the WSOF banner ended by knockout.
Gaethje’s first fight with the UFC came in July 2017, when he met Michael Johnson in the main event of The Ultimate Fighter 25 finale card. Expectations were high for that matchup, and Gaethje delivered, picking up a second-round TKO win over Johnson and earning “Fight of the Night” and “Performance of the Night” bonuses for a contest that won several “Fight of the Year” polls for 2017.
Every UFC fight Gaethje has been involved in since has been viewed with anticipation as he has one of the most fan-friendly styles in the history of not just the UFC but all of MMA. Gaethje might not win every time he steps into the octagon, but he is a fighter always looking to earn a stoppage win and entertain the fans. His 12 fight-night bonus awards in 12 UFC outings can attest to that.
Gaethje won the interim UFC lightweight crown in May 2020 with a knockout win over Tony Ferguson. However, he failed to unify the belts, losing to then-champion Khabib Nurmagomedov by submission in October of that year. Gaethje also fell short in his second try at winning the UFC 155-pound belt, dropping a submission to Charles Oliveira for the vacant title in May 2022.
Gaethje bounced back from that loss with his majority decision victory over Fiziev at UFC 286. A fight that earned both men “Fight of the Night” honors. Geathje’s most recent win was his “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning outing over Poirier.
Gaethje has 20 career knockout wins, one submission victory, and he’s been on the right side of four decisions. The BMF champ’s career losses have come by knockout (three) and submission (two).
He is coming off a fight-of-the-year nominee for 2024, his UFC 300 KO loss to Max Holloway. Gaethje is the No. 3 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings.
Rafael Fiziev (12-3) joined the UFC in 2019. At the time he had a 6-0 record with six stoppages (five knockouts and one submission), with all but one of those fights ending in the first round. Fiziev’s UFC debut ended 86 seconds into the first round when he caught a spinning back kick from Magomed Mustafaev, who had not fought for more than two years.
Fiziev bounced back from his first career loss by going on a six-fight unbeaten streak. He climbed the rankings during that run, which began with an October 2019 decision win over Alex White and ended with a July 2022 knockout win over former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos. Fiziev picked up five fight-night bonuses during that stretch.
With his impressive run, Fiziev earned the No. 6 spot in the official UFC rankings. His reward was a matchup against Gaethje in the co-main event of UFC 286. Fiziev entered that bout as a -230 betting favorite over the +195 Gaethje.
The two put on a striking battle over three rounds in front of an appreciative crowd in London that evening. In the end, Gaethje earned the majority decision win. In his next outing, Fiziev faced Mateusz Gamrot in a UFC Fight Night main event. That contest ended abruptly in the second round when Gamrot scored a TKO win after Fiziev planted his leg to throw a kick and dropped to the canvas.
Fiziev has not fought since he tore his ACL in that contest, even though he was cleared for action in September 2024. Despite his inactivity, Fiziev is the No. 11 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings.
UFC 313 Fight Card Preview: Gaethje Vs. Fiziev 2 Betting Odds
When the betting odds for the UFC 313 co-main event opened, Fiziev was the -145 betting favorite over Gaethje, who came in as the +125 betting underdog. Today, Gaethje comes in as the +141 betting underdog to Fiziev, who is a -161 betting favorite.
*Odds via BetOnline
UFC 313 Fight Card Tale Of The Tape: Gaethje Vs. Fiziev 2
Justin Gaethje:
Age: 36
Height: 5’ 11”
Reach: 70”
Stance: Orthodox
Rafael Fiziev:
Age: 32
Height: 5’ 8”
Reach: 71”
Stance: Switch
UFC 313 Fight Card Stats: Gaethje Vs. Fiziev 2
Justin Gaethje:
Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: 6.78
Striking Accuracy: 59%
Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: 7.46
Striking Defense: 52%
Takedowns per 15 Minutes: 0.11
Takedown Accuracy: 25%
Takedown Defense: 75%
Rafael Fiziev:
Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: 4.90
Striking Accuracy: 51%
Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: 4.97%
Striking Defense: 49%
Takedowns per 15 Minutes: 0.29
Takedown Accuracy: 40%
Takedown Defense: 89%
UFC 313 Fight Card Preview: Gaethje Vs. Fiziev 2 Predictions And Picks
Justin Gaethje has had a long career. That career has been highlighted by some of the most violent fights in MMA history. For the most part, Gaethje’s chin has held up during those wars. However, he is coming off a fight with Max Holloway where he got slept. That’s a significant concern for the 36-year-old scrapper heading into UFC 313.
As for Fiziev, he hasn’t competed since he blew out his knee in September 2023. Yes, he and his surgically repaired limb have been cleared for action for a while, but how will that leg stand up to the pressure, not to mention leg kicks, in this high-pressure matchup?
In the end, I have more questions about Gaethje than I do about Fiziev heading into the UFC 313 co-main event. With that, the betting pick is a Fiziev win via decision. But there will be betting value in picking Gaethje to get the win via knockout or TKO, so that’s a prop bet that must be considered.
UFC schedule for March 2025
We will have more on the UFC 313 fight card as fight night nears, including live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 313 pay-per-view card.
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