For the next two weeks, I’ll be taking a look at the Opening Day true-talent rankings of the 30 MLB clubs on a division-by-division basis. While the rankings are based on actual 2024 batted-ball data, off-season player movement and potential impact of 2025 rookies will be addressed. Yesterday, we began with the AL East. Today, it’s the AL Central.
1 – Detroit Tigers – ”Tru” Talent Record = 87-75 – Offensive Rating = 94.6 (22nd), Pitching Rating = 92.1 (3rd), Defensive Rating = 94.4 (5th) IN: LHP Alex Cobb, 2B Gleyber Torres, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Jack Flaherty; OUT: None
The Tigers were one of the feel-good stories of the 2024 season, surging to the playoffs and nearly reaching the ALCS after a trade deadline roster purge. That was a bonus, as it wasn’t yet their time. Nowe they’re behaving more like a contender, with deadline casualty Flaherty returning in free agency to support ace and defending Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal. Torres was brought aboard to lead off and hopefully kickstart a relatively moribund offense. This could be the true breakout season for LF Riley Greene, and the youth movement continues with Jace Jung taking over third base and power arm Jackson Jobe laying in wait for a high-leverage role in either the rotation or the pen.
2 – Minnesota Twins – ”Tru” Talent Record = 86-76 – Offensive Rating = 104.2 (10th), Pitching Rating = 94.6 (8th), Defensive Rating = 102.9 (24th) IN: 1B Ty France, CF Harrison Bader, LHP Danny Coulombe; OUT: 3B Kyle Farmer, RF Max Kepler, 1B Carlos Santana
The whole of this group has been equal to less than the sum of its parts in recent seasons. The top three in their starting rotation – Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober – matches up with just about anyone’s, and closer Jhoan Duran is a stud. Their lineup might lack impact potential beyond SS Carlos Correa and CF Byron Buxton, but there are no holes, and quality depth exists at most positions. What remains to be seen is whether this club can overcome its recent August/September – and when they get there, October – woes. On paper, they’re probably the best club in the division yet again. Keep an eye on outfield prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez, a potential middle-of-the-order guy.
3 – Kansas City Royals – ”Tru” Talent Record = 82-80 – Offensive Rating = 104.0 (11th), Pitching Rating = 100.6 (20th), Defensive Rating = 102.1 (20th) IN: 2B Jonathan India, RHP Carlos Estevez; OUT: RHP Brady Singer, 2B Adam Frazier, SS Paul DeJong
The Royals may have gotten ahead of themselves in making the playoffs last season, but their organizational trajectory remains positive. Their long-time inability to develop homegrown starting pitching was overcome with the acquisitions of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to front their rotation. Estevez comes over from the Phillies, and with Lucas Erceg leads an improved bullpen. Bobby Witt Jr. is the piece de resistance, who will win an MVP, probably soon. Their acquisition of 2B India for former top pick Brady Singer was panned in some circles, but the move has upside and fits team needs well. They’ll be in the mix all year long.
4 – Cleveland Guardians – ”Tru” Talent Record = 75-86 – Offensive Rating = 91.6 (25th), Pitching Rating = 99.3 (17th), Defensive Rating = 98.3 (12th) IN: RHP Luis Ortiz, 1B Carlos Santana, RHP Slade Cecconi, RHP Paul Sewald, RHP Jake Junis, LHP John Means; OUT: LHP Alex Cobb, 2B Andres Gimenez, RHP Nick Sandlin, 1B Josh Naylor, CF Myles Straw, RHP Scott Barlow, RHP Pedro Avila
One of the most interesting organizations in pro sports from my perspective. They zig when everyone is zagging, and it tends to work out for them. As a team, they simply do not hit the ball hard. They make tons of relatively weak contact (see Kwan, Steven) and do the little things well. They come at you with waves of viable pitching, most of it young and with upside. My batted ball-based methods don’t appreciate them all that much, but you can never count them out. 3B Jose Ramirez and closer Emmanuel Clase are their leading lights, but their core skill sets showed some signs of wear last season. They have an incredibly high floor, but they’re due to regress towards it in the near term. A return to form by onetime Cy Young winner Shane Bieber would help them greatly.
5 – Chicago White Sox – ”Tru” Talent Record = 54-108 – Offensive Rating = 84.1 (30th), Pitching Rating = 108.2 (26th), Defensive Rating = 109.6 (30th) IN: CF Mike Tauchman, C Kyle Teel, 2B Josh Rojas,, LHP Martin Perez, CF Michael A. Taylor, RHP Bryse Wilson; OUT: LHP Garrett Crochet, RHP Michael Soroka, RHP Rod Marinaccio, 3B Yoan Moncada
This team was historically awful in 2024 and could actually be even worse this season, if that’s possible. At least last year’s bunch got some really good starts from Crochet and Erick Fedde, and both are now gone. The club is still trying to accumulate minor league talent, and not much of it has risen to the MLB level yet. 3B Miguel Vargas is likely to hit in the middle of the order full-time and rookie Colson Montgomery has a solid shot to open the season as their shortstop. Still, it’s a bottom of the barrel offense that will get even worse if CF Luis Robert is finally moved, and the rotation is so weak that journeyman lefty Martin Perez is likely to get the ball on Opening Day. Lefty starter Noah Schultz has electric stuff, and could find his way to the South Side sometime this summer.
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