Republicans Win Florida Special Election To Build On House Majority

Topline

Republicans won two special elections in Florida on Tuesday, successfully replacing former GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz and holding their party’s slim majority in the House.

Key Facts

An election between Republican Jimmy Patronis and Democrat Gay Valimont was called for Patronis at 8:20 p.m. EST, meaning the Republican will take over Gaetz’s vacant seat in the House.

The Associated Press called Florida’s sixth congressional district race for Republican state Sen. Randy Fine over Orlando school teacher and Democrat Josh Weil at 7:30 p.m. EST, securing Fine’s spot as Waltz’s replacement.

The win for the Republicans increases GOP House seats to 220 and leave Democrats with 213 seats, boosting Republicans’ minor majority in the chamber.

The Republicans rallied behind the two districts’ majority of Republican voters, as the first congressional district and sixth congressional districts are made up of 55% and 49% registered Republican voters, respectively, according to the Associated Press.

The Democrats headed into Tuesday’s race with a significant fundraising advantage over their Republican opponents, with Weil outraising fine by over $9 million between January and March while Valimont raised five times more than Patronis in that same window.

Republicans’ election day turnout in Florida’s sixth district was 37 points higher than Democrats’, while Republican turnout in the first district was 44 points ahead of Democratic turnout, according to The New York Times.

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What Did Polls Show Ahead Of The Florida Special Election?

Surveys showed a surprisingly tight race between Weil and Fine, with a survey from Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio showing Weil beating Fine by three points, according to Politico. A St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics survey found Fine winning instead, though just by four points.

Tangent

There is also a special election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court that will be decided Tuesday. Democrat-backed Circuit Judge Susan Crawford is taking on Republican-backed Circuit Judge Brad Schimel to determine which party will control the battleground state’s Supreme Court. Tech billionaire and senior Trump adviser Elon Musk’s America PAC has spent over $12 million backing Schimel, also holding a rally in Wisconsin, where he offered cash incentives to voters that included two $1 million awards. Surveys have indicated a relatively close race between Schimel and Crawford.

What Happened To Gaetz’ And Waltz’ Seats?

Gaetz was Trump’s pick for attorney general in November, leading to Gaetz’s resignation from the House. However, his nomination for the new role was derailed by a House ethics investigation that uncovered details of sexual misconduct and illicit drug use allegations. Gaetz later announced he would not rejoin the House, leaving his vacant seat open. Waltz vacated his seat as he took on his new role as Trump’s national security advisor. Waltz recently found himself in hot water after he mistakenly added The Atlantic magazine editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg to a Signal group chat where top White House officials including Vice President JD Vance discussed war plans against Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Key Background

Tuesday’s race was viewed as a test of voter sentiment on Trump’s second term, which will reach its first 100 days this month. Weil and Valimont have campaigned on criticizing Musk’s sweeping and controversial push to cut government spending and its workforce. Additionally, despite fighting for a seat in Republican-leaning districts, Weil and Valimont have managed to out-fundraise Fine and Patronis. The fundraising advantage caught the attention of Trump, who recently commented on the disparity between Weil and Fine, telling reporters “you never know what happens in a case like that.”