The easiest explanations in soccer are the ones that rely on a missing part.
In a game of fine margins and low scoring, it can sometimes be difficult to pinpoint precisely why a particular side is just a fraction away from greatness.
So, the explanation that Liverpool is missing a center-half or that Chelsea needs a proper goalkeeper to challenge for a title is tempting in its simplicity.
Another reason these theories are so sticky is that they are obvious true examples. When Liverpool signed Virgil Van Dijk, for example, everything after that just clicked, or when Chelsea put N’Golo Kante at the heart of its midfield, a better team was suddenly unleashed.
Arsenal has fallen victim to the most prevalent ‘missing part’ this season: the club needs a striker.
Or as veteran sports journalist Henry Winter put it in a post on X: “No target man. No goals. No title hopes. Much right about Arsenal, good manager, some very good players, but the failure to buy a centre-forward is rank negligence.”
In fairness to Winter, the Gunners agree, given their actions at the end of the January transfer window when they tried and failed to sign Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins.
A long-term injury to the club’s sole specialist striker, Gabriel Jesus, is a factor in this argument. However, his relatively modest goal ratio means such calls would probably be made even if the Brazillian was fully fit.
However, following an injury to Kai Havertz, who is not a natural striker but has led the line for most of the season, the frustration has reached boiling point.
Ahead of an away game versus Leicester City, Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta discussed putting youth prospect Ethan Nwauri up top.
“I think it’s [more about]
when, I think it’s in there as [a possibility] more than a necessity,” the coach said. “He’s been playing as an attacking midfielder and on the right wing and I think it’s been really good in that position, so that’s fine.
Arteta then touted loan signing Raheem Sterling as an option.
“[Raheem]
has been much more involved recently on merit and he’s earned the right to do so,” he added. “Obviously, now, in terms of the minutes and availability, we have those players; all the players are going to have more exposure, and certainly, Raz will be one of them.
Finally, he suggested Leandro Trossard.
“It’s for other players as well, and for Leo [Trossard] to probably play in two or three different positions. It’s between all of us, we have mentioned that many times. It’s adding value from different players. It’s probably been a little bit different in adapting to the qualities and the strengths of our players so go for it, the spirit is pretty certainly the same,” he said.
“There are certain things that we’re going to have to adapt, and it brings other opportunities because we’re going to have a different frontline of players that are very unpredictable, so good in 1-v-1s, very creative, very sharp. It’s going to give different headaches to the opposition.”
Ultimately, he chose imposing midfielder Mikel Merino to occupy the number 9 role, which he did to great effect in a 0-2 win.
Less impressive was the following game, a meek 0-1 loss to West Ham United, which ended the quest for a Premier League title and renewed the striker debate like never before.
But the truth is that Arsenal’s excellent form of the previous two years was never built on a forward slamming in goals; the fluidity of having an intelligent, non-traditional striker was often their greatest asset.
In 2022/23 and 2023/24, Arsenal started the season with Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah as their two strikers.
But tellingly, in neither campaign was either one in the top three goalscorers for the Gunners.
Bukayo Saka topped the list in both seasons and, as is often the case with a prolific wide player, is a player who benefits from a striker who links the play rather than dominating.
And of the more than 100 goals Arsenal scored in both campaigns, there was a good spread across the team.
Martin Ødegaard and Gabriel Martinelli contributed 15 goals in 2022/2, while Leandro Trossard and Kai Havertz posted similar figures the year after.
The truth is that this season, all the statistics show a downturn in attacking output that a lack of a prolific striker cannot explain.
After 16 games, the BBC’s analysis showed that the team was behind in terms of goals, shots, and chances created.
The bare fact was that this was simply a less effective Arsenal team.
Perhaps buying an expensive forward would make fans feel better, but it won’t necessarily change the team’s fortunes.
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