Russia’s campaign of strategic drone attacks has shifted up through the gears and is now sending over 4,000 drones a month into Ukraine, hitting energy infrastructure and apartment blocks. Numbers will increase even further in coming months as mass production of Iranian-designed Shaheds, Russian Gerberas and other types ramps up.
And while Ukraine brings down as many of the attacking drones as possible with its integrated air defense system, the sheer number of incoming Shaheds threatens to overwhelm them. New tactics also seem to have increased the proportion getting though.
But things are changing. Ukraine’s defence has started the pivot from ground-to-air weapons to a new generation of interceptor drones to stop the Shaheds.
Too Many To Stop
The Shahed is a WW1 aircraft in terms of performance, puttering along at around 120 mph with the distinctive engine sound which has given it the nickname ‘moped.’ Individually Shaheds are easy to shoot down. The problem comes with numbers.
Ukraine has only a handful of Patriot missiles supplied by the U.S., plus an assortment of other air defence missiles, but nothing like the numbers needed to down thousands of Shaheds every month. A Shahed costs around $30,000, the Russian drones and decoys considerably less. One Patriot missile costs around $4 million. Air-to-air missiles fired by F-16s are similarly effective but scarce.
So Ukraine has relied more on 900 mobile defence units, mainly armed with anti-aircraft cannon and machine guns mounted on a variety of vehicles. Equipped with thermal imaging and, crucially, networked to the webs of sensors that track drones, these teams are positioned along the flight paths of the slow-moving Shaheds to bring them down.
Russia appears to have adopted two new tactics to increase the number of drones that get through. One is concentrating more drones on a single target; the other is flying at high altitude, so they are not vulnerable to gunfire until they reach their targets where they descend in a steep dive.
In February the interception rate was 97%, last month that dropped to 91% (figures compiled from daily reports by Shahed Tracker). That means 9% rather than 3% were getting through, or three times as many.
Ukraine needs a solution, one that can tackle Shaheds at 10,000 feet. Light anti-aircraft guns cannot reach that high, and missiles are too costly and too few. One answer is to stop a drone with another drone.
Interceptor Drone Generations
The original interceptor drones which appeared last year were repurposed FPVs, like the ones that hit tanks and other ground targets, with upgraded batteries and other minor modifications. These have cut a swathe through Russia’s reconnaissance drones which spy out targets for artillery, missiles and attack drones.
A second generation of interceptors have included faster drones like Wild Hornet’s Werewolf and fixed-wing designs. The interceptor pilots, like the Canadian who goes by Butcher who I interviewed about his work last week, even sometimes take down Lancet tactical attack drones.
But the drone makers tasked with killing Shaheds generally come up with bigger designs, driven by propellers.
President Zelensky unveiled one such new interceptor this week after a meeting with representatives of Ukrainian and Belgian defense companies and the Belgian Prime Minister. The video is deliberately obscure with no details visible, and the image above is significantly enhanced. According to Ukrainian sources, the unnamed interceptor is the most successful type so far fielded. It is credited bringing down 20 Shaheds so far, and is now going into mass production. The top speed is quoted at 120 mph, which would seem to be the absolute minimum needed.
According to the DarkStar, a coalition of Ukrainian defence technology groups, at least five interceptor types have now brought down Shaheds. We have some ideas about the others.
A spokesman for the nonprofit drone maker Wild Hornets told me about their Sting interceptor which is designed to take down Shahed-type drones and which has a top speed of over 200 mph. Such drones cost just a few thousand dollars apiece, less than a tenth of the cost of a Shahed.
“The Wild Hornets are now mass-producing Sting drones and working with Ukrainian troops on deployment, training and further innovations based on their continual feedback, as we do with all our drones,” the spokesman told me.
They noted that Sting units are regularly deployed against Shaheds, but they were not able to discuss the results.
“We are prohibited from saying what they have knocked down,” says the spokesman.
Another likely candidate is the German-supplied Tytan, which was displayed in December. This is another purpose-built Shahed killer, with a quoted speed of over 180 mph, and which was said to have been tested successfully in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the US company Fortem Technology have been quietly supplying DroneHunter interceptors to Ukraine since 2022. In December, Fortem CEO Jon Gruen told Overt Defense that their DroneHunter net-firing interceptors had been successful against Shaheds (in addition to many other Russian drones of all sizes) and they planned to have 400 systems in Ukraine by the end of last year.
What we do not have is any video evidence of the interceptors in action. This seems to be entirely deliberate.
Keeping Quiet About Interceptors
Footage of Shahed kills by mobile defence teams regularly appears on social media, as do Shaheds shot down by helicopters, destroyed by air-to-air missiles and by surface-to-air missiles, and even Shaheds downed by jamming. Operational security seems to have prevented an image of air-to-air drone intercepts so far. This is hardly surprising. The Russians would be very interested to see exactly which areas are covered by interceptors, whether they can attack from the front or side, how fast they really fly, and what altitudes they are reaching.
Covering an entire country with interceptors is a major challenge. The combination of relatively low speed and short range means that large numbers of launch sites, or mobile launch units, are needed to ensure enough interceptors can meet each wave of Shaheds. Several thousand will be needed to start, and then thousands more to at least match the number of Shaheds and other attack drones.
Don’t expect details anytime soon, but the interceptors are definitely scaling up. The DarkStar source believes that “Ukraine will solve Shahed terror in the next 2-4 months.”
That will not be the end of the story. The Shaheds have evolved fast and, the Russians will doubtless introduce countermeasures. A similar arms race now sees Russian reconnaissance drones equipped with jammers and an system which automatically performs evasive maneuvers when it detects an interceptor. Being larger, the Shahed could carry a wider variety of defensive aids. Some have suggested net launcher, or even miniature gun turrets like a WWII bomber.
Expect to see more rapid developments on both sides as the drone war continues.
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