Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich remains sidelined after suffering a mild stroke on November 2nd, leaving Mitch Johnson in charge as he recuperates.
Johnson, during his tenure as acting head coach, has let sophomore star Victor Wembanyama launch three’s with reckless abandon, which has not come without some level of criticism from fans and media.
On the surface, it might seem odd that the 7’4 Wembanyama is taking 9.3 three’s per game, and just 3.3 free throws – and there is indeed merit in the discussion of optimizing him as both an interior and outside scorer.
That said, for the Spurs to fully open up the court, the three-point shot, from Wembanyama especially, has to become a legitimate weapon, that forces defenses to stretch out far beyond the three-point line.
As Wembanyama is inclined to do, he will launch deep pull-ups, sometimes from several feet beyond the long line. If he begins to hit those with a high degree of regularity, the Spurs could sport one of the most spaced out offenses in the league, making life easier on players such as Chris Paul, Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, and rookie Stephon Castle.
It’s a process, of course, with varying degrees of success.
Wembanyama started the year by canning just 22.6% of his three-pointers over the first nine games. Then he followed that up by three straight games of six or more made three’s, culminating in a effective 8-for-16 performance on his way to a career-high 50 points against the Washington Wizards.
In the four games since that explosion, he’s back down to 32.7%, further underlining that he’s not yet superbly consistent.
As such, for Johnson, it’s imperative that Wembanyama gets the right type of shots within their offensive flow.
That means providing Wembanyama with a blueprint wherein the player and coach get on the same page in regards to elements such as volume, time and score, and balancing his scoring skills.
That last part in particular is especially important. If Wembanyama maintains his current three-point rate, which accounts for 50.5% of his total shots this season, he will eventually negate his own advantage of being an elite interior scorer.
The Frenchman is connecting on a whopping 82.4% on his attempts within three feet of the basket, but only 23.2% of his shot diet comes from that close in.
The word “moderation” comes to mind when mapping out the rest of Wembanyama’s season. He and Johnson will need to find a way to maintain the danger of Wembanyama as a lob threat, as to get defenses to commit to him, when he dives towards the rim.
If teams can just stand still as Wembanyama steps into long three-pointers, that varies in efficiency, they’ll more than likely just let him settle for that, and live with the games sprinkled in here and there where he connects on five or six of those shots.
And yes, that’s in part why the Spurs can’t simply abandon the shot for him altogether. If he doesn’t offer the element of spacing, teams will pack the paint, or steady themselves at the foul line area waiting for him to get into the post.
That, too, is not a strong option.
Despite the fact that Wembanyama is just a 20-year-old star, the time is now for him to evolve into a legitimate inside/outside threat. That comes with preparation, and a coaching staff that has a plan in place.
As it appears right now, the first part of that plan is getting Wembanyama comfortable from behind the long line. That will come with some growing pains, but it’s nevertheless utterly crucial for him to go through that process.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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