It wasn’t much of a surprise when Cody Bellinger opted in for 2025 to stay with the Cubs. He stands to make $27.5 million next year and has a $5 million buyout coming after that if they don’t want him in 2026. Given the numbers Bellinger put up last season, he was not likely to get a new contract worth more than what the Cubs will pay him next year.
But now rumors are surfacing that the Cubs are looking to trade the 29-year-old former MVP, so he might be in a new uniform come spring after all.
As first reported by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, rival executives are saying that the Cubs are shopping Bellinger, going so far as to say they “expect” him to be traded. Whether or not this is the right move is the question for the Cubs front office.
Teams have been expressing interest in the outfielder/first baseman since the summer of 2023, when it seemed clear that he had bounced back from the injury-ridden years that prompted the Dodgers to release Bellinger after the 2022 season. And although he has yet to put up numbers like he was in the first few years of his career, it is at least evident that Bellinger can provide sterling defense and be an impact bat at the plate.
Bellinger has not played up to the dollar amount he’s getting from the Cubs, but depending on how much of that money the Cubs are willing to pay, trade partners would likely line up if he’s really on the market.
But the bigger question is: Should the Cubs actually deal Bellinger?
From a financial standpoint, it could make sense. According to Spotrac, the Cubs went above the first tier of the luxury tax threshold in 2024, so shedding some payroll from their 2025 roster would help them avoid the penalties. Assuming the Cubs don’t eat a majority of Bellinger’s contract in a trade, dealing him would create a significant amount of payroll space.
That said, team president Jed Hoyer has not exactly indicated that his front office plans to spend big money even if it is available, so clearing payroll might not be a motive here. If not that, the Cubs might deal Bellinger to create room for more at-bats from young players. Pete Crow-Armstrong, for example, seems to be the center fielder of the future, so giving him a full time role beginning in 2025 makes sense for the Cubs in the long term.
The problem with either of those scenarios is the direction of the team going into 2025. The Cubs are coming off of consecutive 83-win seasons where they fell just short of a playoff spot. They haven’t won a postseason game since 2017. The whole of the 2016 World Series core is gone, so fans are eager to see the Cubs start a new chapter, but they’re — rightfully — not willing to slog through another lengthy rebuild. As it is, the Cubs have been rebuilding since the 2021 trade deadline, so it’s fair to expect more than just another also-ran season.
It’s very early in the offseason, but thus far the Cubs have focused primarily on pitching, even though their offensive woes played a big part in making 2024 a disappointing year.
If they do trade Bellinger, the Cubs will most likely be worse in ‘25 than they were in the last two seasons. Again, the patience for a real winner at Wrigley Field among the Cubs fanbase is waning fast, so trading Bellinger needs to be a step toward bolstering the offense in other ways. Even though he has not produced at the plate like he did at the beginning of his career, Bellinger is still a left-handed bat with power, and that’s something the Cubs have sorely needed since trading Anthony Rizzo three and a half years ago.
Losing Bellinger would mean losing that aspect of their lineup, and a group that faltered badly in May and June last season because of a sputtering offense can’t afford such a loss.
It might not make a lot of short-term sense for the Cubs to trade Bellinger, but if Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins are still playing the long game, then dealing him this winter might help the team beyond 2025. Hoyer is in the final year of his contract with the Cubs, however, so his focus might have to be on the more immediate needs of the team. Given how the Cubs have performed since he took over in November 2020, it’s not safe to assume Hoyer will get a contract extension.
Where Cody Bellinger plays next season is not yet clear. If rival executives believe he is available, then Bellinger will likely make up a significant amount of the hot stove speculation. But ultimately, if Jed Hoyer needs to field the best team possible in the coming season, holding on to Bellinger makes the most sense.
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